U.S. EIA Raises Gasoline Price Forecasts for 2023 and 2024

New Oil Price Predictions from the U.S. Energy Information Administration

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has upwardly revised its average oil price forecasts for 2023 and 2024, considering developments in global oil markets.

2023 Oil Price Predictions

According to the November 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook Report published by the EIA, the average price of Brent crude oil is projected to be 68.76 dollars per barrel this year. This forecast is an increase from the 68.64 dollars mentioned in the previous report.

The average price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is expected to be 65.15 dollars per barrel. The price forecast for WTI was set at 65 dollars in last month's prediction.

Price Expectations for 2024

For next year, the EIA expects the average price per barrel to be 54.92 dollars for Brent oil and 51.26 dollars for WTI. In the previous report, the Brent oil price was estimated at 52.16 dollars, while WTI was projected at 48.50 dollars.

Reasons for Price Increases

The upward revision is influenced by significant purchases made by China to increase its strategic oil reserves and new sanctions on Russia, which may limit production.

The EIA estimates that China added an average of 800 thousand barrels of oil to its strategic stocks per day from January to September 2023. Furthermore, it states that China will continue its purchases in 2026 but at a slower pace compared to this year.

Impact of Sanctions on Russia

The EIA predicts that sanctions on Russia will reduce crude oil production by 100 thousand barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026. However, it emphasizes that depending on the stronger impacts of these sanctions, the decline in production could be greater than anticipated, leading to increased prices.

U.S. Oil Production Forecasts

In the U.S., the average daily crude oil production is expected to be 13 million 590 thousand barrels for 2023; this amount is higher than the previous estimate of 13 million 530 thousand barrels. For 2024, the production forecast is projected at 13 million 580 thousand barrels.

This year, global oil supply is expected to average 105 million 980 thousand barrels per day, while global oil consumption is projected to be 104 million 140 thousand barrels. By 2026, global supply is anticipated to reach 107 million 370 thousand barrels per day, with consumption expected to be 105 million 200 thousand barrels.