US China Trade Hopes Raise Wall Street, Gold Drops Hard

US-China Trade Hope Moves Markets

Positive signals following recent trade talks between the US and China have boosted risk appetite in global markets. As Wall Street futures rose, safe-haven gold declined. Reduced geopolitical risks and the Fed's cautious stance also support volatility in the market.

📈 Wall Street Futures and Global Market Reaction

• S&P 500 futures rose 1.1%, while Nasdaq futures rose 1.4%.
• Japanese Nikkei futures gained 1.3%, signaling positive ahead of the Asian open.
• US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “significant progress” had been made in Geneva.
• Chinese officials announced that a “significant compromise” had been reached and a new forum for economic dialogue would be launched.
• According to analysts, these developments could reduce the risk of a global recession.

💲 Dollar Up, Euro and Yen Decline

• The dollar rose 0.4 percent versus the Japanese yen to 145.90.
• The dollar index rose 0.2% to 100.60.
• The euro fell 0.2 percent to 1.1224.
• The dollar found support with a trend out of safe havens.
• Investors believe that trade hopes could boost demand for the dollar.

📉 Gold Declines, Oil Is Upward

• Gold fell 1.7% to $3,268/ounce.
• Gold has moved away from the $3,500 record in April.
• Oil prices, on the other hand, rose on trade optimism.
• Brent crude rose 29 cents to $64.20, while U.S. crude rose 33 cents to $61.35.
• However, OPEC+'s supply increase plans continue to put pressure on prices.

📊 Fed's Stance and Interest Rate Expectations

• The Fed is not being hasty about cutting interest rates. CPI data to be released in the coming period will be monitored.
• Retail sales for April are expected to decline following the previous month's tariff-effective increase.
• The probability of an interest rate cut in June is priced at 17%, while in July it is priced at 59%.
• Findings of 3 to 7 basis points were observed in Fed funds futures.
• Fed President Jerome Powell will speak on Thursday this week.

🌍 Geopolitical Developments Support the Market

• The continuation of the ceasefire between India and Pakistan stands out as a confidence-boosting factor.
• Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said on Thursday he was ready to meet Putin in Turkey.
• The fall in geopolitical tension reduces the stress on the markets.
• These developments are encouraging investors to turn to riskier assets.
• The softening of global trade wars bolsters hopes for economic recovery.

🧠 Expert Review

The fact that the worst-case scenario for the markets has been eliminated as of this week gives an optimistic mood. But Trump's commitment to high tariffs still stands as an element that suppresses growth. Risk appetite is shifting from gold and bonds to equities as the prospect of a rate cut on the Fed's side is being delayed. Therefore, although the short-term rally is expected, cautious optimism should be maintained.

✅ Take Action

Progress in US-China talks and the Fed's interest rate policy hold important signals for investors. Keep a close eye on new opportunities in stocks and developments in safe havens such as gold.
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🛑 Disclaimer

This content is created by Investment Desk AI and does not constitute investment advice. You should make your decisions based on your own research and expert advisors.

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