US Stock Exchanges Weekly Bulletin July 14-18 CPI, Fed and Earnings Reports

📊 Inflation Data Will Be Decisive Before Fed Decision

The most critical agenda of the week: Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due out on Tuesday morning could reshape monetary policy and market expectations.

In the US economy, eyes are turned to inflation data for June, which will be released on Tuesday. In particular, “core” inflation is expected to rise to 2.9% year-on-year, while headline and core inflation are projected to increase by 0.3% on a monthly basis. This suggests that the Fed is moving away from its 2% target and price pressures are persisting. Economists do not expect the Fed to make a rate cut decision in July following these data. According to CME Group data, the probability of an interest rate cut fell as low as 4.7%. Even if inflation comes within expectations, the Fed is unlikely to make a change in the summer. In addition, the disappearance of the downward effect of the tariffs that came into force in the spring could complicate the process of disinflation.

🏦 Banking Industry Under Eye Catch: JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo & Others

The results of the second quarter of the major US banks will give insight into not only the balance sheet, but also the economy.

During the week, JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and other major financial institutions will share their quarterly results with investors. Investor interest will be particularly concentrated on loan volume, net interest income and the capital strategies of banks. Wells Fargo's exit from regulatory oversight could lead it to pursue a freer lending policy and move toward aggressive growth. At the same time, investment banking activities and the revival in the IPO market can reflect positively on trading revenues. In addition, the Fed's cautious stance on its interest rate decision could affect banks' interest-bearing products. With signs of a slowdown in economic activity, banks' sunken loan reserves will also be a separate focus.

💻 Giant Stage in Technology and Chip Industry: Netflix, ASML and TSMC

AI investments, chip manufacturing capacity and content strategies will drive technology stocks.

The tech giants that will take the stage in the middle of the week will present not only earnings for the market, but also future projections. Netflix will share with investors the speed of user growth, return on content investments, and improvements in AI-based recommendation algorithms. ASML and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing will announce capacity increases and order portfolios for AI-connected chip manufacturing. The statements of these two companies will be a clear indication of the health of the global chip industry, not only Nasdaq. Whether the AI investment furore continues will depend on the chip giants' sales figures and investment plans. PepsiCo, on the other hand, will shed light on how the consumer sector is undergoing an adjustment process in the inflationary environment. How the increased costs are reflected in pricing and whether there is a break in consumer demand will be closely monitored.

📈 S&P 500 Targets Rising: Is Investor Confidence Rising?

Goldman Sachs set a target of 6600, Bank of America set a target of 6300. The resilience of corporate America is being tested anew.

Last week, leading institutions updated their S&P 500 year-end forecasts to the upside. Goldman Sachs announced a target of 6,600 points, while Bank of America announced a target of 6,300 points. The index is currently trading at 6.259. Underlying these expectations are “the extraordinary profitability of corporate America” and the immunity of technology-heavy companies to economic cycles. The sectors that attract the most attention are Communication Services with growth of close to 30% and Technology with growth of more than 16%. The long-term revenue projections of these groups, supported by AI investments, contribute greatly to the overall momentum of the index. In addition, companies' inventory planning, supply chain changes and pricing strategies are more prepared for tariffs, limiting risks.

⚠️ Trump's New Tariffs and Market Reaction

The market has not been shaken as much as before: Trump's hard exits on imports are being tolerated this time.

Trump's new tariffs and general import policies on Canada last week have had limited resonance on the market front. After the sharp falls in May, investors are more prepared for such policies. The S&P 500 ended the week down only 0.33%. According to experts, the new tariffs could increase the effective rate by up to 14%. Bank of America highlights the impact of this increase on real growth, noting that companies' alternative sourcing strategies and cost management capabilities are critical. Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that it was difficult to cut interest rates before the climate of uncertainty became clear.

📅 Weekly Economic and Company Calendar

Don't miss the calendar for investment decisions.

Tuesdays: CPI inflation data, NY Empire State Index, JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Bank of NY Mellon, JB Hunt earnings Wednesday: PPI data, Industrial production, Fed Beige Book; Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, PNC, ASML, Johnson & Johnson, United Airlines earnings Thursdays: Retail sales, unemployment benefit applications, import price index; Netflix, TSMC, PepsiCo, Abbott earnings Fredag: Housing starts, Michigan consumer confidence; American Express, 3M, Charles Schwab earnings

🧠 Expert Review

This week, a complex agenda awaits investors, starting with inflation data and continuing with earnings announcements. In the short term, sensitivity to data flow will remain high. Strong results in the banking and technology sectors in the medium term could support the indices. In the long run, the Fed's direction, the clarity of trade policies and the sustainability of AI investments will determine the fate of markets. Traders can turn this challenging week into opportunity with diversification and cautious positioning.

🛑 Disclaimer

This content is created by the Investment Desk and does not constitute investment advice. You should make your decisions based on your own research and expert advisors.

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