October 24 Market Agenda: Optimism and Risks

Market Overview as of October 24

A cautious optimism prevails in the global markets as of October 24. The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on October 30 increases hopes that trade tensions may ease, reinforcing investors' appetite for risk. On the other hand, the Chinese government maintains silence ahead of the APEC summit. While the U.S. administration evaluates new export restrictions in the software sector, trade talks between the two countries will take place between October 24-27 in Malaysia.

Sanctions on Russia and Energy Market

As the U.S. implements sanctions on major Russian oil producers, the EU has also approved the 19th sanctions package targeting Russian energy infrastructure. These moves are seen as efforts to limit Russia's war capacity. Governments' actions raise questions about whether India and China will continue to purchase Russian oil, while they are expected to create upward pressure on global energy prices.

U.S. Inflation Data Expectations

Due to the government shutdown, data flow in the U.S. remains limited; however, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, to be released today, is critically important for both the market and the FED. Inflation is anticipated to rise from 2.9% to 3.1%. If the data comes in below expectations, the likelihood of two interest rate cuts by the end of the year may strengthen again.

TCMB Interest Rate Cuts and Market Reactions

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) cut the policy rate by 100 basis points in the October meeting, bringing it to 39.50%. This reduction has accumulated to a total of 650 basis points since July. The bank is also closely monitoring the risks that price increases pose to inflation. The CBRT's message indicates that they may tighten policy if necessary. In this period of heightened domestic political risks, investors must act cautiously.

BIST 100 Index and Equity Developments

For the BIST 100 index, significant resistance levels are set at 10,700 and 10,800, while support levels stand out at 10,500 and 10,200. Stocks such as TAVHL, AKBNK, and ANHYT drew positive market reactions as operational profitability exceeded expectations. Particularly strong pricing is anticipated for TAVHL and ANHYT stocks.

Conclusion

Market uncertainties and political risks continue to play a significant role in investors' decision-making processes. Understanding today’s market dynamics will aid investors in taking strategic actions.