Market Analysis at Year-End: What Will Happen?

Market Uncertainties and Holiday Schedule

As we approach the last trading day of the year, the holiday schedule plays an important role in global markets. While many markets in Europe will be closed, trading will end early in the UK, France, and Spain. The US markets are expected to remain open, with the bond market anticipated to have a half-day of trading. This situation serves as an indication of how the holiday effect will shape the market.

State of the US Markets

US indices are preparing to close 2025 with an approximately 17% increase. With the impact of artificial intelligence and fiscal incentives, positive expectations continue for 2026. However, high valuations and geopolitical risks may hinder the acceleration of the year-end rally. According to recent FOMC minutes, the likelihood of a rate cut in the Fed's January meeting appears low, although additional cuts could be possible in line with declining inflation.

Insights on Commodities and Local Markets

This year, profit-taking in precious metals, which have performed strongly throughout the year, stands out. Pullbacks in gold and silver are observed, while Brent crude is exhibiting a sideways trend. It is expected that concerns about oversupply during the OPEC+ meeting will limit production increases. In Turkey, market movements are anticipated to remain within a narrow band due to year-end effects. The BIST 100 index has shown attempts to recover after falling below the 11,300 level in recent days.

Banking Sector and Bond Markets

The banking index is experiencing a volatile trend, while benchmark bond yields are declining due to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (TCMB) interest rate reduction process. The upward trend in the USD/TRY continues, with the 43.00 level gaining significance as a psychological threshold. By the end of the year, it is generally expected that trading volume will remain limited on the last trading day.

Conclusion and Expectations

The inflation data to be released on Monday and monetary policy actions are expected to have a more significant impact on market pricing starting from January. Details regarding stocks with strong technical appearances also continue to attract the interest of investors.

It should be noted that the information shared here does not constitute investment advice.