Year-End Market Analysis: What Will Happen?

Market Uncertainties and Holiday Calendar

As the last trading day of the year approaches, the holiday calendar plays an important role in global markets. While many markets in Europe will be closed, trading will end early in the UK, France, and Spain. US markets are expected to remain open, with a half-day trading session anticipated in the bond market. This situation highlights how the holiday effect will shape the market.

State of US Markets

US indices are preparing to close 2025 with an approximate 17% rise. With the impact of artificial intelligence and fiscal incentives, positive expectations for 2026 continue. However, high valuations and geopolitical risks may hinder the acceleration of the year-end rally. According to the latest FOMC minutes, while the likelihood of a rate cut in the Fed's January meeting appears low, additional cuts may be possible in line with declining inflation.

Views on Commodities and Local Markets

Profit-taking in precious metals, which have performed strongly throughout the year, is noteworthy. Withdrawals in gold and silver are being observed, while Brent oil remains in a horizontal trend. Concerns about excess supply in the OPEC+ meeting suggest that production increases will be limited. In Turkey, due to year-end effects, market movements are expected to remain in a narrow range. The BIST 100 index has shown recovery attempts after recently retreating below the 11,300 level.

Banking Sector and Bond Markets

The banking index is experiencing a volatile trajectory, while benchmark bond yields are declining with the CBRT's rate-cutting process. The upward trend in the USD/TRY continues. With gradual increases, the 43.00 level has gained psychological significance. At the year-end, a limited overall trading volume is anticipated on the last trading day of the year.

Conclusion and Expectations

The inflation data to be announced on Monday and monetary policy steps are expected to have a more significant impact on market pricing from January onwards. Details regarding stocks with a strong technical outlook continue to interest investors.

It should be noted that the information shared here does not constitute investment advice.