VanEck Report: What Is the Source of Bitcoin Sales?

Recently, the sharp pullback in Bitcoin prices has drawn investors' attention, and a new report from the asset management company VanEck sheds light on this situation. The report reveals that a significant portion of the recent sell-offs has come from wallets in the mid-cycle. The increase in coins that have moved in the last five years stands out as an important indicator for understanding the reasons behind the selling pressure.

According to VanEck, coins that have not been moved for over five years exhibit a relatively stable stance. The fact that long-term investors have added approximately 278,000 Bitcoins to this category over the past two years demonstrates that long-term confidence in the market remains intact. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price is trading at $86,696, which marks a level that is %31 lower than the all-time high of $126,080 seen in October.

Analysts note that the price drop is not solely based on this transformation, but also related to forced liquidations, partial sales from some long-term wallets, and significant volatility in the futures market. Nic Puckrin, the CEO of Coin Bureau, states that large-balance former investors have reduced their positions in recent weeks, creating a new additional supply flow in the market. In an unprecedented situation, Carol Alexander from Sussex University highlights that aggressive trading strategies on offshore exchanges have caused rapid price movements.

In VanEck’s analysis, it is emphasized that there has been a %32 decline in coins that have been inactive for 3 to 5 years over the last two years, and these coins have been transferred to new addresses. The company characterizes this movement not as a capitulation but as a classic behavior pattern of investors acting in accordance with cycle changes. Additionally, the report mentions a significant unwinding of Bitcoin perpetual futures positions; since October 9, open positions have declined by %20 in Bitcoin terms and %32 in dollar terms.

In conclusion, the stable stance of long-term investors and the movements of coins in the mid-cycle indicate that Bitcoin has entered a reset phase. It is noted that this structure has been seen before tactical recoveries in past cycles. It is crucial for investors to closely monitor this transformational process and the changes occurring in the market.