VanEck Report: What Is the Source of Bitcoin Sales?

Recently, the sharp pullback in Bitcoin's price has caught the attention of investors, while a new report by asset management firm VanEck sheds light on this situation. The report reveals that the majority of the recent sell-offs have come from mid-cycle wallets. Notably, the increase in coins that have moved in the last five years serves as an important indicator for understanding the reasons behind the selling pressure.

According to VanEck, coins that have been held for over five years have shown a quite stable stance. The addition of approximately 278,000 Bitcoins to this category by long-term investors in the last two years indicates that confidence in the market remains intact. At the time of writing, Bitcoin's price is trading at $86,696, which marks a level that is 31% lower than the all-time high of $126,080 observed in October.

Analysts point out that the price decline is not solely attributed to this transformation; it is also linked to forced liquidations, partial sales from some long-term wallets, and sharp volatility in the futures market. Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, states that large-balance former investors have reduced their positions in recent weeks, creating a new additional supply flow in the market. In an unprecedented situation, Carol Alexander from Sussex University highlights that the rapid price movement is due to aggressive trading strategies in offshore exchanges.

In VanEck’s analysis, a 32% decrease in inactive coins over the past two years has been observed in coins held for 3 to 5 years, emphasizing that these coins have been transferred to new addresses. The company characterizes this movement not as a capitulation, but as a classic behavioral pattern of investors moving with the change of cycles. Additionally, the report notes that significant unwinding has occurred in Bitcoin perpetual futures positions; since October 9, the open positions have dropped by 20% in Bitcoin terms and 32% in dollar terms.

In conclusion, the stable stance of long-term investors and the movement of coins in the mid-cycle indicate that Bitcoin has entered a reset phase. It is noted that this structure is seen before tactical recoveries in previous cycles. Investors must closely monitor this transformation process and the changes occurring in the market.