Consumer Confidence Declined in the Third Month

Consumer confidence, which has significant effects on the economy, fell for the third consecutive time in October, reaching its lowest level since April. The latest index data announced by the Conference Board shows that it declined by 1.0 points on a monthly basis, dropping to 94.6. While consumer views on current job and labor market conditions showed slight improvement, expectations for short-term income, jobs, and labor market conditions fell by 2.9 points, dropping below a level that generally indicates a recession period.

It has been observed that consumer confidence varies depending on income levels, and this situation is considered one of the signs of a K-shaped economy.

Stephanie Guichard, the Conference Board’s Senior Economist for Global Indicators, stated, “Consumer confidence remained stable in October and showed only a slight decline from the upwardly revised level in September.” Guichard noted that consumer assessments of current job conditions recorded an upward trend, marking the first improvement in evaluations of current job opportunities since December 2024. However, she expressed that all three components of the Expectations Index weakened somewhat.

The decline in consumers' expectations for future job opportunities and job conditions indicates a more pessimistic outlook for the future. In October, 15.8% of consumers expect more job opportunities after the sixth month, which is below the 16.6% level recorded in September.

On the other hand, data released by ADP on Tuesday suggests that the labor market may have shown "moderate improvement" in October. However, this data contradicts announcements of layoffs by large companies such as Amazon and UPS.

The Conference Board’s data is published during a period when official metrics regarding the health of the United States economy are largely suppressed. September employment data has yet to be released, and after the weak performance in August, October job data is not expected to be announced next week. September inflation data was announced with a delay, showing slightly better results than analysts had expected. However, it is reported that data for October has not yet been collected.