Tesla is preparing for the most critical balance sheet of the year. Will he be targeted?

📌 What Happened?

Tesla (TSLA) is preparing to announce its first quarter results for 2024 after the market close this evening. The company will face investors after a difficult period in which CEO Elon Musk has been the focus of increased criticism, especially in the last three months. Wall Street expectations were shaped by Tesla's announcement of $0.41 profit per share and $21.35 billion in revenue. But, according to Bloomberg, downward revisions to both profit and revenue forecasts are notable. The expectation of a 5% pullback on the revenue side and 8% on the profit side highlights the weakening outlook in the markets.

The company's stock performance also confirms this picture. Although TSLA stock has risen 69.93% in the past year, it has lost 36.36% since the beginning of 2024. Especially yesterday, the stock suffered a new sharp decline after the news that the launch of the Model Y in the United States was postponed. Even so, Tesla is still trading at 118 price/earnings ratio, which is still pretty expensive considering the tech giants are trading in the 20-35 F/K band.

Tesla's performance tonight, which failed to meet Wall Street expectations six times in the past eight balance sheet periods, is critical for investors. The stock price had moved more sharply than market forecasts seven times during those periods. This situation also manifests itself in the options market. Markets expect a volatility of about 9.3% in the share price after the balance sheet. This rate, although below the average of 12.3% in the last four quarters, indicates that uncertainty is still high.

According to Barclays analysts, although fundamental indicators are weak, Musk's strong narrative and messages to the markets could revive upside potential. JPMorgan, on the other hand, reports that expectations of the largest post-balance sheet movement in the options market in the last four years are priced in. This marks a period of “open both ways” but harsh volatility for Tesla.

The balance sheet to be released during this period includes not only its financial performance, but also the effects of Tesla's relations with China and U.S. trade policies. The fact that U.S. President Donald Trump waives much of the tariffs he announced earlier this month and continues to take a clear stance against China puts Tesla's access to batteries and other critical components it imports from China at risk. This could affect both the company's car production and energy storage projects.

The biggest question mark is how Tesla will manage rising cost pressures. The company may run the risk of loss of demand if it raises prices. But if it sacrifices its margins, the contraction in profitability could cause a backlash from investors. This dilemma makes the company's strategic decision-making process even more difficult.

In the first quarter of 2024, Tesla's vehicle deliveries fell 13% to 336,700 units. This marked the lowest quarterly data in three years and the first double-digit decline for the company. This widespread weakness in China, the United States and Europe, combined with temporary halts in Model Y production and controversial public statements by CEO Musk, has negatively impacted demand for the brand.

Experts say Musk's political rhetoric has hurt Tesla's brand and poses diplomatic challenges to the company's reach, especially in international markets. Tesla's risk of becoming a bargaining chip in future trade deals is another major factor unsettling investors.

However, Tesla's breakthroughs in new segments such as energy storage systems, AI-based software projects and robotics continue to strengthen the company's long-term narrative. Positive signals from these divisions could offset the pressures in the automotive segment.

📉 Products That May Be Affected

🟢 Positive:
• Technology companies focused on artificial intelligence projects
• Companies developing energy storage solutions
• Tesla partner suppliers
• Electric vehicle software and autonomous driving solutions

🔴 Negative:
• TSLA share
• Car companies dependent on battery imports
• U.S. automakers with high exposure to China
• Luxury segment electric vehicle brands

🧠 Expert Review

For Tesla, this balance sheet could be a strategic threshold that will shape investor perception for the entire year, not just quarterly performance. Delivery declines, profitability pressures and China-focused supply risks look negative in the short term. But strong presentation of long-term narratives in energy and software could turn the direction upward in the markets. In high-volatility stocks like Tesla, investors expect a strong narrative for post-balance sheet direction. Elon Musk's messages and forward-looking statements will be decisive at this point.

✅ Take Action

Review your positions ahead of the Tesla balance sheet. Be prepared for sharp price movements that may occur after the balance sheet.
Explore relevant analytics
Examine investment opportunities

🛑 Disclaimer

This content is not investment advice. You should make your decisions based on your own research and professional advisors.

investment desk, analysis, stock, stock exchange, balance sheet, crypto, US markets, BIST 100, technology stocks, Trump, Tesla, Elon Musk, TSLA, Tesla balance sheet, vehicle deliveries, automotive sector, electric vehicles, energy storage, battery imports, China taxes, artificial intelligence, robotaxis, Tesla production, Tesla profitability, Tesla pricing analysis, options market, balance sheet analysis, Wall Street outlook, TSLA target price, Tesla P/E ratio, Tesla Model Y, Tesla decline, electric vehicles, Tesla earnings, Tesla options, Musk performance, AI investment, battery imports, China tariffs, EV deliveries, Tesla volatility, energy storage, Wall Street forecast, Tesla stock analysis, earnings season, trade policy risk, TSLA price target, Tesla guidance, Musk narrative, US-China tension, Tesla valuation