Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's Gradual Easing Forecast: Policy Rate Will Decrease in 2026

Important Statements from the Banking Association of Turkey

Başkan of the Banking Association of Turkey (TBB) and General Manager of Ziraat Bankası Alpaslan Çakar shared important insights about the de-inflation-focused, data-driven, and cautious monetary policy that the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) will follow in the future. Çakar stated that a gradual easing path will be adopted in parallel with the lasting improvements in inflation trends.

2025: A Year Full of Uncertainties

Çakar emphasized that the year 2025 stands out with many uncertainties and ongoing geopolitical developments worldwide. He pointed out that global trade would be replaced by regional partnerships and stated that Turkey will be one of the least affected countries during this period with the economic program to be implemented.

Turkey's Economic Performance

Çakar noted that Turkey has developed a positive economic story thanks to its strong foreign trade structure, market diversity, and the de-inflation process. He also reported that the growth is becoming more balanced and the predictability in financial markets is increasing.

Tight Monetary Policy and the Banking Sector

Alpaslan Çakar emphasized the contributions of the tight monetary policy to the banking sector. “Macroprudential measures significantly shaped the sector through liquidity management and credit processes,” he stated. He noted that in 2025, banks will continue to maintain a healthy balance sheet structure for sustainable growth.

Credit and Deposit Growth

Çakar mentioned that banks are focusing on developing their credit portfolios towards TRY loans in 2025. He reported that Ziraat Bankası's active size has increased by over 50% with the positive developments in the sector.

2026 Economic Outlook

Çakar anticipated that TCMB would gradually lower the policy interest rate for 2026 and conclude the year below 30%. He pointed out that in this process, the interest and risk appetite of foreign investors towards Turkey would increase.

In Conclusion

Despite the economic challenges in 2025, Çakar stated that Turkey is well-prepared and predicted that the banking sector would enter 2026 strongly. He emphasized that macroeconomic dynamics will be extremely critical and that opportunities will become more apparent in this regard.