TCMB October 2025 Survey: Inflation and Dollar Predictions

TCMB October 2025 Market Participants Survey Results

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (TCMB) has published the results of the Market Participants Survey for the period of October 2025. The survey was answered by a total of 68 participants, consisting of representatives from the real and financial sectors. The results reveal the expectations of market actors regarding inflation and exchange rates.

Increasing Inflation Expectations

According to the survey results, the participants' year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation has risen from 29.86% to 31.77%. The 12-month ahead inflation expectation has also increased from 22.25% to 23.26%. Additionally, the 24-month ahead CPI expectation has reached 17.36%, up from 16.78%.

Exchange Rate Predictions

Short-term exchange rate predictions showed a notable change. The participants' year-end exchange rate expectation, which was 43.85 TL in the previous survey period, has decreased to 43.56 TL in this survey period. The 12-month ahead exchange rate expectation has increased from 48.96% to 49.75%.

Interest Rate Expectations

The current month-end overnight interest rate expectation in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market was 40.48% in the previous survey period, while it is 39.15% in this period. The policy interest rate expectation of the TCMB for October is set at 39.00%.

Increase in Growth Expectations

The participants' GDP growth expectation for 2025 has risen from 3.2% to 3.3%, and for 2026 from 3.7% to 3.8%. This increase is considered a sign of improvement in economic activity.