TCMB Survey Released: Inflation and Market Expectations for 2025

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced the results of the Market Participants Survey for the month of September 2025. This important survey was answered by a total of 68 participants, consisting of representatives from the real sector and financial sector, which stands out as a factor enhancing the reliability of the results.

According to the feedback received from the participants, significant findings were obtained regarding inflation expectations. It is observed that the year-end inflation target for 2025 is generally shaped around 16.5% among the participants. When evaluated in light of market dynamics and internal economic factors, this figure underscores the importance of efforts to control inflation.

Expectations regarding exchange rates were also a significant focus in the survey. Forecasts for the dollar/TL exchange rate, as of 2025, concentrate at an average level of 30.50 TL among participants, reflecting the sensitivity of market actors to developments in foreign exchange markets. It is considered that if the dollar continues to rise, the balances in the economy could be further disrupted.

Growth expectations represent another important indicator. Survey participants set the growth forecast for the Turkish economy in 2025 at 3.5%. This figure is emphasized to be quite critical in light of regional and global economic conditions. Participants drew attention to the necessity of political stability and economic reforms for achieving growth targets.

Forecasts regarding interest rates were another notable aspect of the survey. Participants predict that the CBRT could raise the policy interest rate to 26.0% by the end of 2025. The increase in interest rates is considered a factor that will directly affect borrowing costs and, consequently, economic stability.

In conclusion, this survey conducted by the CBRT presents the expectations of market participants regarding economic indicators while providing a clearer perspective on the future. There is a general consensus that the economic management needs to take steps in line with the established targets.