Standard Chartered's Expectation of 1 Trillion Dollar Change

Standard Chartered expects banks in emerging markets to direct 1 trillion dollars towards stablecoins. This major shift presents significant opportunities and risks for investors. The bank forecasts that by 2028, approximately 1 trillion dollars in deposits at banks in emerging markets could flow into stablecoins. In particular, dollar-pegged crypto assets have the potential to offer individuals and businesses cost-effective, fast, and reliable access to dollars.

Stablecoins are known as dollar-based crypto tokens that typically maintain their value by being backed one-to-one by cash and short-term U.S. Treasury bills. Standard Chartered analysts Geoffrey Kendrick and Madhur Jha emphasized that these tokens serve as a "dollar-based bank account" for many users. Notably, it is stated that the new GENIUS Act in the U.S., which imposes a "interest ban," will not diminish interest in stablecoins. According to the report, "the preservation of capital has become more important than the return on capital."

The bank predicts that the global stablecoin market will reach a size of 2 trillion dollars by the end of 2028. Currently around 173 billion dollars, the accumulation of stablecoins in emerging countries is expected to rise to 1.22 trillion dollars. This indicates a 1 trillion dollar migration from banks to stablecoins. According to Standard Chartered’s analysis, this process will most significantly affect Egypt, Pakistan, Colombia, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Turkey, India, China, Brazil, South Africa, and Kenya are also considered risky regions in terms of this "stablecoin migration".

It is noted that this major transformation could put pressure on banks' payments, foreign exchange, and correspondent banking revenues. However, some institutions could turn this situation into an opportunity by holding stablecoin reserves or integrating these assets into their systems. Standard Chartered emphasizes that stablecoins have now become an "alternative savings vehicle" in emerging markets and that a trillion-dollar transition scenario is no longer a possibility but a fundamental expectation.