Ray Dalio's Collapse Warning: Is the U.S. in an 80-Year Cycle?

Famous billionaire Ray Dalio warns that the United States is on the brink of an economic and societal collapse, considering this situation an important warning in terms of historical cycles. In his latest analysis, Dalio expresses that the current financial conditions and social polarization have brought the modern world to a critical crossroads.

According to Dalio's theory of the Big Cycle, the signals of transition from the fifth stage, which is the last stage before the collapse of the current order, to the sixth stage, which directly represents collapse, are becoming clearer every day. The three main factors standing in the way of this transition are listed as poor financial conditions, a massive wealth gap, and a severe economic shock. Especially in the U.S., the burden of national debt and attempts to solve this issue by printing money is devaluing the currency and exacerbating public unrest.

Dalio emphasizes that the signs of great empires' collapses in the past overlap with current developments. The media turning into a propaganda tool and the loss of the truth are pitting different segments of society against each other, and the rise of populism is among the clearest evidence of the disruption of the order. Highlighting that the recent violent incidents in Minneapolis are a critical tipping point in this process, Dalio notes that traces of the transition to the sixth stage can also be seen here.

Historical data shows that when governments run out of money, they tend to raise taxes or engage in uncontrolled money printing. This situation leads to capital fleeing the country and moving towards safer havens. Dalio advises investors to be cautious in such periods to protect themselves, believing that there may still be a peaceful way out before the system completely breaks down, but this requires strong and unifying leadership.

Ray Dalio recalls that these cycles historically last about 80 years, citing that the last major rupture occurred between 1930 and 1945. Current debt crises and geopolitical tensions indicate that the world order established in 1945 is nearing its end. Dalio emphasizes that individuals should focus on increasing their financial literacy to protect their assets during such periods. Additionally, the fact that 30% of the U.S. population has started to see violence as a solution supports Dalio's analogy of a powder keg.

If the disagreements within the system cannot be resolved peacefully, the transition to that dark phase in the dusty pages of history seems inevitable. For investors, this process signifies not only an economic collapse but also a struggle for societal survival.