Current Situation in the Markets: 5 Key Points You Need to Know

Current Status of Markets: 5 Key Points You Should Know

As global markets approach the Christmas and New Year holiday period, trading volumes are decreasing, and macro data and geopolitical developments are taking center stage in pricing.

US Economy Growing Strongly

The US economy grew at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, significantly outperforming expectations of 3.3%. The key drivers of this growth include strong consumer spending and a recovery in exports. However, a more moderate growth based on income indicates a balancing of economic activity.

Inflation and Interest Rate Policy

In terms of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index rose by 2.8%, supporting the perception that price pressures are gradually easing. This outlook opens up room for the Fed to consider interest rate cuts, but due to strong growth data, it is thought that a "wait-and-see" approach will continue in the short term.

Promising Rise in Precious Metals

On the precious metals front, safe-haven demand and expectations of interest rate cuts are prominent. Gold has surpassed the $4,500 level, heading towards new peaks, while silver, platinum, and palladium are also trending close to historical record levels. The fact that gold prices have increased by over 70% in the year can be attributed to geopolitical risks and central bank purchases.

Short-Term Market Outlook

Particularly domestically, the BIST 100 index is fluctuating within the 11,000-11,500 band, with the 11,300 level marking an important equilibrium point in the short term. Meanwhile, indicators showing that producer cost pressures persist are noteworthy on the macro data front. The annual increase of over 31% in the Foreign Producer Price Index in November demonstrates that the cost pressures in agriculture and food have not completely dissipated.

Currency Market and Bond Outlook

In the currency market, a gradual upward trend is observed in the Dollar/TL, with the 42.70-43.00 band continuing to be a critical monitoring range in the short term. In the bond market, following the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's interest rate cut, the benchmark bond yield has stabilized at 37.8%.

Overall, year-end calendar effects and decreasing foreign transactions are narrowing the maneuvering space in domestic markets. However, expectations for disinflation and a decline in risk premium support an upward trend in the medium and long term.