Market Update: 5 Key Points You Need to Know

Current Situation in Markets: 5 Key Points You Should Know

As global markets approach the Christmas and New Year holiday period, trading volumes are decreasing, and macro data and geopolitical developments are taking center stage in pricing.

US Economy Grows Strongly

The US economy grew at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, significantly exceeding expectations of 3.3%. Key drivers of this growth include strong consumer spending and a recovery in exports. However, more moderate growth in income-based indicators suggests a balancing of economic activity.

Inflation and Interest Rate Policy

In terms of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index increased by 2.8%, supporting the perception that price pressures are gradually easing. This outlook opens up space for the Fed to begin an interest rate cutting process, but strong growth data implies that a “wait-and-see” approach will likely continue in the short term.

Inviting Increase in Precious Metals

On the precious metals front, safe-haven demand and expectations for interest cuts are prominent. Gold, having surpassed the $4,500 level, is heading towards new peaks, while silver, platinum, and palladium are also hovering near historical record levels. The over 70% annual increase in gold prices can be attributed to geopolitical risks and central bank purchases.

Short-Term Market Outlook

Specifically in Turkey, the BIST 100 index is fluctuating between the 11,000-11,500 band, identifying 11,300 as a significant short-term equilibrium point. Additionally, indicators show that producer cost pressures remain persistent on the macro data front. The annual increase of over 31% in the Foreign Producer Price Index in November shows that agricultural and food cost pressures have not completely disappeared.

Currency Market and Bond Outlook

On the currency front, a gradual upward trend is observed in the Dollar/TL exchange rate, with the 42.70-43.00 band remaining a critical monitoring range in the short term. In the bond market, following the Central Bank of Turkey's interest rate cut, the benchmark bond yield is stabilizing at around 37.8%.

Overall, the year-end calendar effect and decreasing foreign transactions are constraining the movement space in domestic markets. However, expectations for disinflation and a decline in risk premiums support an upward trend in the medium and long term.