Current Developments in the Markets: October 10, 2025 Analysis

Highlights in the Markets

As of October 10, 2025, significant developments are taking place for investors. Uncertainty regarding the reopening of the U.S. government is affecting market dynamics, while data-driven economic policies are also creating uncertainty. In the latest minutes, Federal Reserve members emphasized that a potential interest rate cut could be on the table due to observed weaknesses in employment, but inflation risks must also be taken into account.

Searching for Balance in Global Markets

Investors are pricing in a 92% probability of a 25 basis points interest rate cut at the October meeting. China's new restrictions on rare earth element exports are seen as a strategy to strengthen the country's position in trade talks with the U.S. Despite this, the CSI Rare Earth Index rose by 5%.

Regional developments have lowered tensions with the Hamas-Israel ceasefire, while the Russia-Ukraine war continues to escalate global risks. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.14%, and the Dollar Index is hovering around 99.3. Meanwhile, the value of gold has decreased to $3,960, and Brent crude oil has fallen to $64.70.

Current Status of Borsa Istanbul

Borsa Istanbul completed the day with a fluctuating performance. The BIST 100 index ranged between 10,700 and 10,900. The banking index lost 1.69%, negatively impacting the overall index. With the market opening, a more moderate trend is expected in domestic markets. The VIOP started the morning session with a 0.28% increase.

High inflation and the tight stance of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) have put pressure on stock performance, while construction and cement stocks have shown positive differentiation following the Gaza ceasefire. According to CBRT data, gross reserves have reached a historical peak of 186.2 billion dollars. Additionally, industrial production has increased by 7.1% year-on-year.

Highlighted Stocks and Investment Opportunities

Today, aviation stocks, particularly companies like THYAO and PGSUS, are drawing attention in global markets. Morgan Stanley has revised its year-end inflation forecast to 31.5% and its policy interest rate expectation to 37.5%.

Moreover, some stocks in the BIST 100 index with a strong technical outlook are noteworthy. Stocks such as GLRMK (Gülermak Heavy Industry), GRSEL (Gür-Sel Tourism Transport), and KTLEV (Katılımevim Tas. Fin.) should be monitored by investors.

It should be noted that the information presented here is not investment advice.