Current Market Situation: Tips for Investors

Cautious Outlook in Global Markets

In global markets, pricing is showing a cautious outlook ahead of geopolitical risks, discussions on U.S. monetary policy, and critical macro data. Statements by U.S. President Trump regarding a 25% additional customs duty on countries trading with Iran are increasing risk perception stemming from the Middle East.

Increase in Oil Prices

These developments are putting upward pressure on energy and precious metals, with a geopolitical risk premium of about $3-4 added to oil prices. Currently, Brent oil is hovering around $64, while WTI prices are balancing just below $60.

Strong Trend in Gold and Precious Metals

The political pressure on the Fed and news regarding the investigation into Fed Chairman Powell are increasing safe-haven demand in global markets. In this environment, the ounce of gold is exceeding $4,600, attempting new record highs. Generally, a strong trend is being observed in precious metals.

Developments in the Forex Market

The dollar index has recently retreated, while the euro/dollar parity is recovering above the 1.16 level. Limited pullbacks are observed in U.S. Treasury yields; the 10-year Treasury yield remains around 4.17%.

Strong Performance of Borsa Istanbul

Domestically, Borsa Istanbul continues its strong performance due to the ongoing disinflation process and expectations of interest rate cuts ahead of the upcoming meeting of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). The BIST 100 index is heading towards the 12,400 level, with the 12,200 level becoming a key support zone.

Profit Realization in Banking Stocks

Sectorally, the banking index is facing profit realizations after previous peaks, but it is maintaining its main channel structure. The 17,500 level is being observed as an important threshold in the short term, with potential for re-acceleration above this level.

Situation in Currency Rates

In the currency market, despite the global weakening of the dollar index, the dollar/TL rate continues to hold above the 43.00 level. This level is now being monitored as major support. The euro/dollar parity is trying to stabilize in the 1.1650-1.16 range.

High Levels in Gram Gold

Gram gold is trading at high levels in parallel with global records. The fact that gram gold remains above its previous peaks, due to currency effects, is a sign of strong safe-haven demand from domestic investors.