Important Developments in the Markets Before November 13

Important Developments in Markets Before November 13

Global markets are starting the day with a positive atmosphere as the U.S. government shutdown, lasting 43 days, has come to an end. The resolution of the budget crisis in Congress was made possible by the withdrawal of some health support program demands from the Democrats. With a vote held in the House of Representatives, the bill was approved by 222 to 209 votes, and the federal government has resumed operations.

Unemployment Data and Interest Rate Cut Expectations

However, it has been stated that public institutions will need at least a week to operate at full capacity. Following the halt of data sharing during the shutdown, the White House announced that October inflation and employment data could not be released tomorrow. Economists calculated that the shutdown process resulted in a loss of more than 11 points to growth on a weekly basis.

While markets reacted positively to the end of the budget crisis, the weak ADP private sector employment data appears to have increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, supporting risk appetite. The FedWatch shows a 55% probability of a rate cut being priced in.

Developments in Asia-Pacific and European Markets

In the Asia-Pacific region, the outlook is mixed. With the positive sentiment from the U.S., the stock exchanges in Japan, Indonesia, and Malaysia are trading positively, while technology stocks in China are under pressure due to cooling and concerns over interest rate cuts in Australia. After discussions between Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi and BoJ Governor Ueda, no interest rate hikes are expected in the near term.

Similarly, a positive trend is observed in European stock exchanges. In Germany, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a monthly increase of 0.3% and an annual increase of 2.3%, aligning with expectations. This situation signals that price increases may continue.

Commodity and Borsa Istanbul Status

On the commodity side, although the reopening of the government has reduced some demand for safe havens, gold remains above the $4,200 level. Silver is trading at $54, while Brent crude oil is priced at $63.

On Borsa Istanbul, a limited recovery effort has emerged in the middle of the week. The BIST 100 index, although it fell below the 11,000 level, closed the day with a 0.6% increase at 10,640 points. Technically, the 10,600 level serves as the first support, while if 10,700 is surpassed, expectations for a return to the 10,800-11,000 range will rise.

Conclusion

In the face of market fluctuations, investors are expected to approach the current news flow with caution. There are no significant data releases scheduled for today; however, the state of the markets is being closely monitored.