What You Need to Know Before the Market Opens: October 1st Review

What You Need to Understand Before the Market Opens

The BIST 100 index continues its decline as it fails to receive sufficient support from global markets domestically and new political uncertainties emerge. The 11,000-point level stands out as a critical threshold for the short-term outlook. If this level is maintained, reaction rallies towards 11,200 points could be on the agenda. In adverse scenarios, 10,900 and 10,800 points emerge as support levels.

While Istanbul Inflation Draws All Eyes

Today, market attention is focused on the Istanbul Inflation data. The importance of this data is believed to dictate the market's direction. The VIOP morning session started with a 0.11% decrease, reflecting investors' concerns.

US Government Shutdown

Due to a failure to reach a budget agreement in the US, the federal government partially shut down. This marked the 15th time since 1981 that the government's operations have been restricted. Trump emphasized that hundreds of thousands of public employees could be laid off as a result of the ongoing budget stalemate. This situation could also cause delays in the publication of important economic indicators such as non-farm payrolls, leading to uncertainties in the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.

New Tariffs and Inflation Risks

The new customs tariffs announced by Trump are also affecting market dynamics. Tax increases, covering a wide range from the pharmaceutical sector to heavy vehicles, are estimated to rise further after the New Year. This situation increases upside risks on inflation and is among the factors that could influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions.

Volatility in Gold and Oil Prices

Following the shutdown news, safe-haven demand increased, pushing the ounce price of gold to $3,875 and setting a new record. Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $4,000 by the end of the year. In the oil markets, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels. This situation strengthens the expectation of a short-term rise in Brent crude oil prices.

Status of Asian and European Markets

Although data from Asia looks positive, a mixed trend is observed due to the US shutdown situation. Today, manufacturing PMI and inflation data in Europe will be closely watched. ECB President Lagarde's statements regarding the effects of trade tensions are considered a factor supporting interest rate cut expectations.