5 Critical Factors You Need to Know Before the Market Opens

Impact of Global Developments on Markets

The pricing behavior in global markets fluctuates between geopolitical developments and macroeconomic data. Particularly, the U.S. statements regarding Iran and Venezuela bring Middle Eastern risks to the forefront, while President Trump's comments about the halt of executions in Iran partly reduce this tension. However, the rapid ability of geopolitical risks to shift direction continues to necessitate a cautious stance in the markets.

Current State of Macroeconomic Data

The outlook for the U.S. economy is generally balanced. According to healthy labor market data, weekly jobless claims fell below expectations, while the strong increase in the New York Fed manufacturing index raises optimism regarding economic activity. This situation limits the necessity for the Fed to implement aggressive interest rate cuts in the near term.

Global Stock Markets and the Technology Sector

The earnings season highlights selective buying in global stock markets. Positive financial results from companies in the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors support technology stocks, while TSMC's strong balance sheet triggers an increase in stocks like Nvidia and ASML. However, the valuation multiples remaining above historical averages emphasize the critical importance of strong profit growth for sustainable increases.

Commodity and Gold Markets

Commodity markets have been exhibiting volatile trends recently. Oil prices declined with the easing of military intervention concerns regarding Iran, and it is anticipated that Brent crude will fluctuate within a wide range. In precious metals, profit realizations in gold and silver stand out. Although the decrease in geopolitical risks and the strengthening of the dollar may cause short-term declines in these assets, it is possible to say that they have not lost interest in the medium term.

Developments in Turkish Markets

The BIST 100 index maintains its upward momentum despite its volatile trend. With purchases occurring towards the close on the fourth trading day of the week, the index tested new historical peaks. High trading volume indicates that the rise is broad-based. Technically, maintaining a level above 12,400 is a critical threshold for the index.

Although a volatile trend is expected in the short term, staying above the descending channel in the medium term suggests that the upward potential continues. Additionally, Turkey's CDS premiums approaching their lowest levels indicate an improvement in risk perception.