Developments to Follow at Market Open

Developments Highlighted at Market Opening

Due to the impact of the Christmas holiday, trading volumes in global markets have significantly weakened. While there are limited price movements in US and European indices during post-holiday openings, the overall risk appetite is following a neutral trend.

Current Situation of US Indices

US indices completed the short trading week with an average increase of over 1%. The 7,000 points threshold may come into play for the S&P 500 index at year-end.

The Importance of the Fed and Next Week

In the new week, the important agenda item for the markets will be the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. The 25 basis point rate cut made at the December meeting and the differing views in the FOMC minutes are being closely monitored for price implications.

Geopolitical Developments

On the geopolitical front, statements regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation are prominent. Positive messages from US President Trump regarding peace talks could trigger expectations that the priced-in risk premium may decrease. This indicates a favorable ground for the European economy and global trade balances.

Situation in Commodity Markets

In the commodity markets, gold, silver, and platinum are testing record levels. A weakening dollar and geopolitical uncertainties continue to support safe-haven demand. However, the risk of profit realization has also increased.

Asian Markets and Domestic Developments

In Asian markets, the Bank of Japan's inflation targeting and military movements on the China-Taiwan line are increasing the regional volatility risk. Domestically, Borsa Istanbul is experiencing a calm week due to low global participation and weak data flow.

Banking and Bond Markets

In the banking and holding indices, limited selling pressure is observed due to year-end position adjustments. The Central Bank of Turkey's 2026 monetary policy calendar is being closely monitored on the bond side.

Current Situation in the Currency Market

In the currency front, there is a mild upward trend in the dollar/TL exchange rate. As the year-end approaches, the thought that foreign investors' transactions may increase is seen as a supportive factor for TL assets.

Conclusion

As we enter the last week of the year, a low-volume, narrow-band appearance stands out in both domestic and global markets. Despite the weakness of the data calendar, it is expected that the data to be announced in the new year may have an impact on pricing.