Signals for an Upward Trend in the Oil and Metal Markets are Becoming Clearer

Expectations of Renewed Surge in Oil and Metal Markets

The chief strategic officer of the famous investment company Carlyle Group, Jeff Currie, stated that the current positions in the oil and metal markets are significantly insufficient and that this situation carries serious growth potential. Currie emphasized that the long-standing perception of excess supply has brought oil prices down, but this perception has been exaggerated.

Increase in Oil Prices and Insufficient Supply

In a statement made on Bloomberg Television, Currie said, "If you have to sift through data to find evidence of excess, this is not an oil supply excess. Such things hit you like a sledgehammer." In New York, oil prices have increased by more than 10% this year, rising to around $64 per barrel. This increase contradicts the predictions of Wall Street analysts who have been anticipating a prolonged excess supply.

Expectations Regarding Russian Oil and Global Demand

Currie associates a large part of this situation with the Russian oil that is subject to sanctions and is waiting at sea. Despite the availability of current supply, only a few countries are willing to purchase this oil. Particularly, China is currently absorbing a significant portion of the excess supply.

Geopolitical Risks and Commodity Markets

The strategist predicts that if international sanctions are lifted soon, 100 million barrels of oil could enter the markets. However, he also added that it is challenging for this scenario to occur and that it could be a situation “nobody expects.”

The increase in oil prices is influenced by various factors such as tensions between Washington and Tehran, disruptions at the main export terminal in the Black Sea, and winter storms in the U.S. Currie noted that increasing geopolitical risks are leading to stockpiling across all commodity classes and that there is a shift from tech sectors focused on the "new economy" to asset-weighted sectors of the "old economy." This situation resembles the increase in gold prices following the collapse of the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s.