The influence of OpenAI on Google may be exaggerated.

Investors Concerned

Mizuho analyst Lloyd Walmsley noted that investors' fears regarding OpenAI’s potential impact on the internet, particularly on Google, may be exaggerated. In his remarks, he stated, 'Competitive risks from OpenAI have been a major topic in over 100 investor meetings.'

Walmsley suggested that these concerns bear resemblance to some past distribution fears, most of which did not come to fruition. In this context, he pointed to Amazon's entry into the market and healthcare sectors and TikTok's impact on Meta as examples.

Mizuho expressed caution regarding potential risks but believed that many investors have a tendency to overly measure the effects based on the product successes of artificial intelligence users.

Following the recent Atlas launch by OpenAI, competitive fears are expected to diminish, and the market will refocus on the fundamentals of earnings.

Specifically regarding Google, the Mizuho analyst mentioned that the upcoming Gemini 3 launch could shift sentiment for Alphabet shares toward artificial intelligence winners. He also pointed out that time spent per user data shows a continuing slowdown for OpenAI, emphasizing that usage has been 'stable but has not experienced a significant jump after the end of summer.'

On the consumer side, Mizuho indicated that OpenAI's Sora application stands out in the iOS App Store, while expressing that Sora is unlikely to have a meaningful impact on Meta or YouTube. Additionally, he noted that Meta has successfully managed the rise of Snap and TikTok and that replicating this strategy with artificial intelligence is possible.