Three Important Surprises Forecasted by Morgan Stanley for 2026
Three Major Surprises Morgan Stanley Expects in 2026
1. Productivity Growth without Job Growth
The U.S. economy may experience a "productivity growth without job growth" that reduces inflation and makes it easier for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Morgan Stanley strategist Matthew Hornbach indicates that the weakening labor market could limit wage increases and inflation, while accelerating productivity could sustain economic growth. In such a scenario, core inflation may dip below 2%.
According to recent data, non-farm sector productivity increased by 3.3% in the second quarter, compared to a 1.8% decline in the previous quarter.
Stock and Bond Balance is Shifting
2. Rebalancing of Stock and Bond Prices
While stock and bond prices generally move in opposite directions, this relationship changed in 2025. According to Morgan Stanley, bonds and stocks rose simultaneously. This situation is driven by poor economic data strengthening expectations for Fed interest rate cuts.
Strategists foresee a return to a "bad news is bad" phase for risky assets if inflation returns to the Fed's target level.
Expectations for Surge in Commodity and Energy Prices
3. Strong Surge in Commodity and Energy Prices Expected
After a significant rise in commodity prices in 2025, this trend is expected to continue in 2026. Morgan Stanley states that a weak dollar and global economic recovery may drive commodity prices higher.
The depreciation of the U.S. Dollar and China's strong consumption demand could push energy prices to new heights. Analysts believe that tight supply conditions and increased artificial intelligence investments boosting demand will support this situation.
Sizin İçin Derlendi
Benzer Haberler
.png)
Yakında Tüm Platformlarda
Sizlere kesintisiz haber ve analizi en hızlı şekilde ulaştırmak için. Yakında tüm platformlarda...
.png)