Critical Inflation Data at Risk: Government Closed

The U.S. Inflation Data May Be Unreleased

The non-farm payroll data released on the first Friday of every month in the U.S. has not been published for the last two months due to the government shutdown. Now, the status of the October consumer inflation (CPI) data, expected to be released this Thursday, is also uncertain.

Face-to-Face Data Collection Halted

The inability to release data, combined with the halt in face-to-face data collection, increases the risk that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) may not publish the October CPI data at all.

Important Predictions in the Report

A report by BNP Paribas dated October 28 predicts that if the U.S. government reopens on November 10, the non-farm payroll data for September, which should normally be released on October 3, will be pushed to November 12, and the October payroll data, which is scheduled for November 7, will be delayed to November 26. Additionally, no date estimate was made for the CPI data, which should be announced on November 13. However, it was noted that the CPI data for November, normally expected to be released on December 10, could be announced on December 17.

Impact on Fed's Interest Rate Decisions

The possibility of not releasing the October CPI data creates uncertainty regarding the Fed’s ability to reduce interest rates at its December meeting. Economists stated, “Even if the government reopens, it seems unlikely that the BLS will collect and process data for the October and November CPI reports.” This situation implies a lack of the necessary green light data for the Fed to proceed with interest rate cuts.

Market Expectations and Fed Officials

While market expectations still lean towards an interest rate cut in December, investors will closely monitor statements from Fed officials such as John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Stephen Miran, and Alberto Musalem this week. New York Fed President Williams emphasized in an interview with the Financial Times that “the next interest rate decision will be a real balancing act,” stating, “inflation is high and currently shows no signs of declining.”