K33: Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Is No Longer Valid

K33 Research's latest report reveals that Bitcoin's (BTC) traditional four-year halving cycle has now lost its validity. The report emphasizes that Bitcoin has entered a new structural phase, with institutional adoption, state-level participation, and macroeconomic policies determining Bitcoin’s new rhythm.

Specifically, this week Bitcoin reached all-time highs against both the US dollar and the Euro; the record in Euro terms is the first to occur since January 2025. K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated, "The four-year cycle is dead, long live the king," expressing that the direction of the market is now determined by structural forces rather than retail investor enthusiasm. While Lunde acknowledged that the market is overheated in the short term, he drew attention to the fact that Bitcoin ETFs and positions in derivatives surged by 63,000 Bitcoin (approximately $7.75 billion) in just one week.

Open positions in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures saw an increase of 15,000 Bitcoin, while American ETFs absorbed 31,600 Bitcoin within seven days. Historically, such surges have often occurred before local peaks; however, Lunde noted that long-term trends are not disrupted. According to K33, the 2025 rally is underpinned by structures, unlike previous peaks. In 2017, the expectation of futures created a bubble, while in 2021, hopes for ETF led to another; however, in 2025, these hopes are turning into reality.

For example, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETFs are valued at $100 billion, while Morgan Stanley’s customer allocation reached 4%. Additionally, it is noteworthy that the Washington administration is adopting crypto-friendly policies, such as Trump’s Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Lunde remarked that it is not tight monetary policy, but rather the era of excessive liquidity that supports Bitcoin, stating, “A management that moves towards lowering interest rates in 2026 will choose expansion over restrictions. This is a significant advantage for scarce assets.”

K33 argues that the 1000-day cycles of previous bull markets are merely coincidences, asserting that Bitcoin should now be evaluated based on six different market indicators rather than technical symmetries. Of these indicators, only the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the overbought zone, and it warns regarding the perpetual/spot volume spread. According to the analysis, this indicates that the Bitcoin price is still moving in a healthy range.