JPMorgan's Minimum Wage and Economic Forecasts

JPMorgan's Striking Predictions for 2026

JPMorgan shared its predictions in a recent report that the minimum wage in Turkey will increase by 25%. This forecast is said to potentially create a significant impact in the markets.

2025 Will Be a Challenging Year

According to the report, the year 2025 will be difficult for Turkish companies. Slowing revenues and margin pressure could lead to a 20% decline in real earnings. On the other hand, an improvement in macroeconomic conditions is expected in 2026.

Consumer Demand Remains Fragile

Analysts point out that consumer demand may still remain fragile in 2026. When combined with the expectation of an increase in the minimum wage, this situation could heighten uncertainties in the economy.

Turkey's Growth Forecast at 4.4%

A GDP growth of 4.4% is expected for Turkey in 2026. This growth positions Turkey among the fastest-growing emerging economies compared to Poland and Gulf countries within the CEE and EMEA markets.

Increase in Minimum Wage and Inflation

The report highlights regarding the increase in minimum wage that, "J.P. Morgan forecasts a 25% increase in line with the expected inflation over the next 12 months," which has the potential to deeply affect market dynamics.