JPMorgan's Minimum Wage and Economic Forecasts

Striking Predictions from JPMorgan for 2026

JPMorgan shared its predictions in the latest report that the minimum wage in Turkey will increase by 25%. This forecast is noted to potentially create a significant impact in the markets.

2025 Will Be a Challenging Period

According to the report, the year 2025 will be challenging for Turkish companies. Slowing revenues and margin pressures are expected to lead to a 20% decline in real earnings. On the other hand, an improvement in macroeconomic conditions is expected in 2026.

Consumer Demand Remains Fragile

Analysts note that consumer demand may still remain fragile during 2026. This situation, combined with the expectation of an increase in the minimum wage, could raise uncertainties in the economy.

Turkey's Growth Forecast is 4.4%

A growth of 4.4% in Turkey's GDP is expected for 2026. This growth positions Turkey among the fastest-growing emerging economies compared to CEE and EMEA markets like Poland and Gulf countries.

The Increase in Minimum Wage and Inflation

The report states regarding the increase in the minimum wage, “J.P. Morgan forecasts a 25% increase in line with the expected 12-month inflation,” highlighting that this expectation has the potential to deeply affect market dynamics.