The Impact of Geopolitical and Economic Developments on Markets

Significant Developments at Market Opening

Pricing in global markets is exhibiting a fluctuating outlook due to geopolitical developments, U.S. macro data, and discussions regarding the independence of the Fed. The increase in non-farm payrolls in December falling short of expectations by 50,000 indicates a loss of momentum in the labor market, while the unemployment rate falling to 4.4% and wage growth maintaining an annual rate of 3.8% suggests that there has not been a sudden deterioration in the labor market.

Fed's Expectations and Interest Rate Pricing

This situation strengthens the perspective that the Fed will continue its wait-and-see policy in the short term, with limited interest rate cut scenarios coming to the forefront for 2026. However, the news of a legal investigation against Fed Chairman Powell and the increasing pressure on the central bank have significantly impacted the global risk perception.

Developments in Currency and Gold Markets

The pullback in the dollar index is increasing demand for safe havens in the markets, while gold is attempting to reach new records, surpassing $4,600 per ounce. Silver has also shown a similar rise, reaching its historical peaks. U.S. index futures are under pressure following this news flow.

Trends in Oil Prices

On the geopolitical front, protests in Iran, U.S. strategies toward Venezuela, and uncertainties in energy supply are supporting oil prices. Brent and WTI oil prices continue their upward trend despite the global oversupply, with geopolitical risks serving as a balancing factor for prices.

Condition of Borsa Istanbul

Domestic Borsa Istanbul, after a strong start, has crossed the 12,200 level, approaching historical peaks, while the 12,000 point level remains a key support position. The index staying above this level is a critical indicator for the continuation of the upward trend. Additionally, the banking index is nearing the 17,500 level, while foreign investors maintaining their positions supports market sentiment.

Current Situation in Bond and Currency Markets

In the bond market, the Central Bank of Turkey's (TCMB) interest rate policies and the continuation of the disinflation process are keeping interest rates at low levels. The tendency of the dollar/TL exchange rate to hold above the 43.00 level is noteworthy, while the Euro/Dollar parity is showing a weak trend amid global dynamics.

Overall, the calming of the domestic macro agenda causes us to focus on the TCMB Monetary Policy Committee meeting and the assessments of credit rating agencies regarding Turkey.

Technical Outlook and Strong Stocks

The following list includes stocks showing a solid technical outlook in the BIST 100 index:

• Gülermak Heavy Industry (GLRMK)
• Turkish Gold Enterprises (TRALT)

The information provided here does not constitute investment advice.