IMF Warned: Rising Tensions and Risks in the U.S. Economy

Critical Warnings from the IMF Regarding the U.S. Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Senior Economist Gita Gopinath made important evaluations regarding global economic developments at a press conference. Gopinath noted the resilience of the U.S. economy in recent years, stating, "We are currently observing an increase in tensions."

Slowing Demand and Employment Issues

Gopinath expressed concerns about the slowing domestic demand in the U.S. and the loss of momentum in job growth. Decreased immigration, tariffs, and uncertainties in general policy are among the factors putting pressure on economic activities.

Growth Forecasts and Shutdown Risks

According to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) report published by the IMF last month, the growth forecast for the U.S. economy for 2023 is set at %1.9. Gopinath stated that these forecasts do not account for a government shutdown and predicted that growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 would likely be lower than expected.

Observations and Expectations

Gopinath mentioned they expect a partial recovery in the first quarter of 2026 but expressed that they need to continuously update their forecasts due to current uncertainties. She also emphasized that it has become challenging for the IMF to assess the U.S. economy due to a lack of data.

Assessments on Fed Policies

Gopinath pointed out the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy and inflation issues, stating that tariffs have increased the upside risks on inflation. She stressed that the Fed should be cautious while balancing slowing job growth and inflationary pressures.

International Support and Syria's Needs

Gopinath indicated that Syria requires significant international support for its economic reconstruction. The IMF is committed to providing capacity development support to help Syria overcome its economic challenges.

Gopinath reported that in a meeting held last week between IMF President Kristalina Georgieva and Syrian President Ahmed Shara, the topics of Syria’s economic opportunities and the IMF's support were discussed. It was stated that priorities for reforms would be determined in the meetings to be held in Damascus last week.