IEA Lowers Global Oil Demand Forecast

IEA's Important Thoughts on Global Oil Demand

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2025 from 737,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day. In this context, the total oil demand for 2025 is expected to reach an average of 103.8 million barrels per day.

Demand Expectations for 2026

The demand growth for 2026 is anticipated to be 699,000 barrels per day. Thus, total demand is projected to reach 104.5 million barrels in 2026. According to third-quarter data, there has been a 750,000 barrels per day increase in global oil demand.

Changes in Global Oil Supply

In September, global oil supply recorded a monthly increase of 760,000 barrels per day. The OPEC+ group provided an increase of 1 million barrels per day during the same period, while supply outside of OPEC+ dropped by 230,000 barrels per day.

Supply Growth for 2025 and 2026

IEA has raised its forecast for growth in global oil supply for 2025 from 2.7 million barrels to 3 million barrels. For 2026, this estimate has been increased from 2.1 million barrels to 2.4 million barrels. Accordingly, the total oil supply for 2025 is projected at 106.1 million barrels per day, while in 2026, it is expected to be 108.5 million barrels per day.

OPEC+ and Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth

The growth in non-OPEC+ supply is expected to be 1.6 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026, while the growth in OPEC+ supply is forecasted to remain at 1.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026.