IEA Increased Global Oil Demand Forecast for 2026

IEA's Updated Oil Demand Report

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly revised its oil demand forecast for 2026 upwards. According to the IEA's Oil Market Report, global oil demand is expected to rise by approximately 932 thousand barrels per day in 2023 compared to last year, reaching 104 million 981 thousand barrels. Previous forecasts indicated that this increase would be 863 thousand barrels. Thus, the projected demand increase for 2023 has been adjusted upwards by 69 thousand barrels.

Impact of Economic Normalization

This increase in global oil demand is largely influenced by the normalization of economic conditions, especially with the end of fluctuations in customs tariffs affecting the consumption of petrochemical products. According to the IEA's analysis, a significant portion of the demand will be met by OECD non-member countries with an increase of approximately 930 thousand barrels per day.

Decline in Global Supply

On the other hand, global oil supply fell to 107 million 410 thousand barrels in December 2025, decreasing by 350 thousand barrels from the previous month. This decline is attributed to production restrictions in Kazakhstan and some countries in the Middle East. According to the IEA, supply has decreased for the third consecutive month and remains approximately 1 million 600 thousand barrels below the record level reached in September 2025.

OPEC's Production Changes

During this period, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)'s crude oil supply decreased by approximately 340 thousand barrels from the previous month, measured at 28 million 820 thousand barrels. OPEC's non-conventional production outside of crude oil was recorded at 5 million 720 thousand barrels per day. Thus, OPEC's total oil supply in December 2025 decreased by approximately 360 thousand barrels compared to the previous month, reaching 34 million 540 thousand barrels.

In non-OPEC+ countries, production increased by approximately 10 thousand barrels compared to the previous month, reaching 72 million 870 thousand barrels in the same period. Additionally, global oil supply is expected to average 108 million 700 thousand barrels this year, an increase of approximately 2 million 500 thousand barrels compared to last year.