Sharp Decline in 2025-2026 Copper Supply Forecast from Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs Revises Copper Supply Forecast Downward

Goldman Sachs has lowered its global copper mine supply forecast for 2025 and 2026 due to production disruptions at Grasberg, one of the world's second largest copper mines. The mine's owner, Freeport-McMoRan, declared force majeure following a mudflow on September 8, which left workers trapped underground.

Impact of the Disruptions

The bank estimates that the incident will result in a total loss of 525,000 metric tons of copper supply. This would reduce the mining supply forecast by 160,000 metric tons in 2025 and 200,000 metric tons in 2026.

Production Forecasts Revised

Grasberg mine production is expected to fall by 250,000-260,000 metric tons in 2025 and 270,000 metric tons in 2026. Goldman Sachs said that Freeport had underestimated this mine's 2025 fourth quarter production and that the area outside the affected area could be back in production by mid-quarter.

Global Production Growth Forecasts Revised

Goldman Sachs said this expected production loss has led it to lower its global mining production growth forecast for 2025 to 0.2 percent from the previous 0.8 percent and for 2026 to 1.9 percent from 2.2 percent.