Global Securities' bullish forecast for Tüpraş!

Global Menkul Değerler' Important Report on Tüpraş

Tüpraş (#TUPRS) has caught the attention of Global Menkul Değerler, one of the most important players in the Turkish financial markets. Known for its experience in the sector since 1990 and its analytical approach, GMD has added Tüpraş to its model portfolio, giving a target price of 253 TL and a recommendation to "BUY." This assessment indicates a potential return of up to %42 by October 15, 2025.

Tüpraş’s Strong Balance Sheet and Investment Plans

The critical report emphasized that Tüpraş stands out as one of the most defensive stocks. With the recovery of middle distillate margins, a cost-focused approach, stable domestic demand, and a strong balance sheet, the company's characteristics as a cash-generating refinery are highlighted. Tüpraş states that it will maintain its net cash position and continue its dividend potential with a planned 600 million dollar investment program for 2025.

Market Outlook and Demand Increase

The report anticipates that Tüpraş’s net refining margin will be around 5.6$/barrel in 2025 and 6.0$/barrel in 2026. Low stock levels and increased diesel demand in the transportation sector indicate that margins will remain strong in Q3 2025. Turkey’s consumption of petroleum products is expected to reach 19.1 million tons, marking a %4.7 year-on-year increase in the first half of 2025.

Risks and Catalysts for Investors

Global Menkul Değerler also outlined the risks Tüpraş may face in its report. Potential weak fuel demand, regulatory delays in SAF and green hydrogen projects, high energy costs, and currency fluctuations are highlighted. However, strong diesel and jet margins, dividend announcements, acceleration in SAF and Entek investments, and the normalization of Iraqi oil supply via the Kerkük-Ceyhan line are considered important catalysts for Tüpraş.