Ford's Third Quarter Results Expectations

Ford Motor Company (F) is preparing to announce its third-quarter results. Specifically, the impact of the fire at its aluminum plant on Ford F-150 sales will be in focus. Additionally, the company is expected to provide investors with more information on the effects of President Donald Trump's automotive tariffs.

According to Bloomberg consensus, Ford is expected to report revenues of $43.70 billion for the third quarter. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be $0.36, and adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are forecasted at $2.02 billion.

The fire at the Novelis aluminum plant in New York has affected the production of Ford's large SUVs and F-150 Lightning electric vehicles. The production loss is expected to result in approximately $1 billion in losses for Ford.

Ford is also dealing with the effects of President Trump's automotive tariffs. In the second quarter, automotive tariffs cost Ford $800 million, and this figure is projected to reach $2 billion by year-end. This situation reflects a gross negative adjusted EBIT impact of $3 billion for Ford, partially offset by $1 billion in mitigation efforts.

The company provided new guidance for the end of the year, indicating that adjusted EBIT is expected to be between $6.5 billion and $7.5 billion. Additionally, adjusted free cash flow is expected to be between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion, while capital expenditures are projected to be around $9 billion.

General Motors reported that its third-quarter tariff costs were $1.1 billion. The total for the year is expected to range between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion.

Despite the negative impact of the fire at Novelis and rising recall costs, changes in automotive tariffs are thought to benefit Ford. The government extended the timeline for automotive manufacturers to balance tariff costs based on the percentage of vehicle value manufactured in the U.S. Ford is expected to benefit from this as approximately 80% of its vehicles are produced in the U.S. Tariffs on medium and heavy-duty trucks are also helping Ford.

Ford has divided its business model into three units: Ford Blue (traditional gasoline business), Ford Model e (electric vehicle division), and Ford Pro (commercial and super heavy-duty truck business). According to Bloomberg, Ford's expected revenue breakdown is as follows:

• Ford Blue: $25.67 billion
• Model e: $1.78 billion
• Ford Pro: $16.43 billion

Despite some disruptions in tariffs, Ford increased its sales in the third quarter. Total sales reached 545,522, representing an 8.2% increase compared to last year. Ford experienced a 7.4% increase by selling a total of 313,654 units in trucks like the F-Series, Ranger, and Maverick. F-Series trucks have shown nearly a 13% increase year-to-date.

As expected, Ford reached the highest levels of electric vehicle sales in the third quarter. Buyers rushed to purchase electric Mustang Mach-E SUVs and F-150 Lightning trucks before the federal electric vehicle tax credit period ends. September marks the seventh consecutive month of increases for Ford.