Pegasus (PGSUS), one of Turkey's leading low-cost airlines, is preparing to announce its financial results for the second quarter of 2025. The company announced in the first quarter of the year Net loss of TL 2.63 billion After that, it entered a recovery process, which was followed closely by institutional investors. Eyes are now on to what extent this loss will be recouped in the Q2 balance sheet. For investors, this balance sheet will test not only the past, but also their projections of profitability for the future.

Business Investment Forecast: Record Turnover, Strong Profitability

According to the outlook report released by Business Investment, Pegasus in 2Q25 37.87 billion TL revenue He is expected to get it. This figure corresponds to the highest quarterly revenue level in the company's history. In particular, increased passenger traffic, strong outbound performance and an increase in ancillary revenues support this growth.

A dramatic jump is also predicted on the EBITDA side: 10.78 billion TL Together with EBITDA, an increase of approximately 727% compared to the previous quarter is expected. If the net profit forecast 5.99 billion TL at the level, which indicates that the company is not only compensating for the loss, but aggressively returning to profitability.

Hard Turn in Margins: Seasonal Impact or Structural Improvement?

The EBITDA margin is expected to be 28.5%. This represents a significant improvement over the company's 5.5% margin in the first quarter of 2025. However, seasonality also plays a significant role in this rise. The second quarter of the year is traditionally the high season in the airline industry and is the period when the highest occupancy rates, strongest ticket prices are observed for low-cost carriers such as Pegasus.

Analysts will look for the question of how much of this margin growth is structural and how much is temporary in detailed post-balance sheet presentations. Especially in the third quarter, fuel price volatility, volatility in the euro/TL parity and rising fleet costs could threaten these margins.

Passenger Data, European Market and Additional Auxiliary Income Items

Pegasus's growth engine isn't just ticket sales. In recent quarters, the company's ancillary revenues — such as luggage, food and beverage, rapid transit, seat selection — have reached nearly 25% of total revenues. The density in European lines, in particular, allows the company to generate income based on foreign exchange, while the profitability of these items is quite high.

The strong passage of the tourist season and the vitality of demand from Europe increased both the volume and the pricing power of international flights. Pegasus carried over 9 million passengers in the second quarter of 2025, with occupancy rising to over 88%. This performance shows that capacity management and fleet optimization are carried out quite efficiently.

Company Strategy and Fleet Expansion Plans

Pegasus plans to add 10 new Airbus A321neo aircraft to its fleet by 2025. These models, with a longer range and lower fuel consumption, will allow the company to both reduce costs and open capacity to regions outside of Europe in the Middle East and North Africa. In addition, “eco-flight” strategies developed for sustainability-oriented flight planning and carbon footprint reduction are also of interest to ESG investors.

While the company's total capacity growth is expected to be around 20% by the end of 2025, upside revisions could be seen in the medium-term valuation multipliers for the stock if this growth is supported by healthy margins.

Technical Outlook and Investor Expectation

PGSUS shares before the balance sheet are traded in the range of 135—145 TL. While the stock has diverged positively with respect to the BIST100 index over the past 3 months, a close above $150 can technically be considered a signal of a new uptrend. But investors will want to see the structural improvements that will support this bounce — particularly the net debt/EBITDA ratio, exchange rate risk and fleet costs — in the balance sheet footnotes.

As a result, the balance sheet for the second quarter of 2025 for Pegasus will serve as not just a profit statement, but a test of the company's transformation in operational efficiency. Strong recovery after losses can rebuild investor confidence. But the main thing is whether this success is sustainable.