Fitch: Positive Outlook for Turkish Banks Depends on Country Rating

Fitch Ratings' Assessment of Turkish Banks

The international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings stated that the credit ratings of banks in Turkey are highly sensitive to the country’s overall credit profile. The agency analyzed the impacts of macroeconomic stability on the banking sector.

The Relationship Between Country Rating and Bank Activities

According to Fitch's statement, any change in Turkey's BB- country rating or outlook will directly affect the operating environment ratings and shareholder support credit ratings of Turkish banks. It is worth noting that Fitch changed the outlook of 22 Turkish banks from "stable" to "positive" in parallel with the country rating on January 28, 2026.

Positive Changes in the Operating Environment

As of January 2026, with the revision of the operating environment outlook to positive, four private banks have been re-evaluated based on their financial strength. For example, Garanti BBVA's credit rating continues to strengthen with support expected from its main shareholder, BBVA.

Expectations for Other Banks

It was emphasized that the financial capacity ratings of banks such as Ziraat Bankası, VakıfBank, and TSKB could be revised upwards if the operating environment exceeds the BB- level.

Key Elements of Optimistic Expectations

Fitch bases its current positive expectations for the banking sector on several key elements:

• It is anticipated that Turkish banks will maintain access to international funding markets.
• With the decline in inflation, reductions in interest rates are expected to support banks' net interest margins.
• It is emphasized that increasing profitability will create a buffer to offset any potential limited deterioration in asset quality.