"Data scarcity before the Fed meeting has plunged the economy into uncertainty."

The Federal Government Shutdown Affects Economic Data

Due to a budget impasse in Congress, the federal government, which shut down on October 1, is now on its 25th day, causing delays in the release of some key official economic data.

Non-Farm Payroll Data Delayed

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has not released the non-farm payroll report, which was scheduled for publication on October 3, as well as weekly unemployment claims data, leading to decreased expected productivity.

Delayed Inflation Data

The BLS, responsible for preparing inflation data, was unable to announce the Producer Price Index (PPI) data that was supposed to be released last week, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was completely shared with a delay. According to this data, the CPI in the U.S. rose by %0.3 monthly and %3 annually in September, falling short of market expectations.

Reactions to Uncertainty

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt noted in her assessment of the data that inflation remained below expectations thanks to the economic policies of President Donald Trump, stating, "Democrats who prefer the government to remain closed will likely cause the October inflation report to go unpublished, plunging businesses, markets, families, and the Fed into uncertainty."

Alternative Data Comes to the Fore

In the absence of official data, alternative indicators such as the private-sector employment report from the ADP Research Institute and the layoffs report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas shed light on the market's search for direction. According to ADP's data, private sector employment in the U.S. fell by 32,000 people in September, contrary to expectations.

Fed's Concerns Regarding Interest Rate Cuts

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that the government shutdown has delayed some economic indicators while stating that they are monitoring alternative sources. Powell indicated that there are increasing downside risks to employment.

Experts' Evaluations

Michael Pearce, Deputy Chief Economist at Oxford Economics, stated that the lower-than-expected increase in consumer prices in September sets the stage for an interest rate cut to be made next week. Pearce said, "I expect the Fed to cut rates three times next year."