Ahead of Fed's July 2025 Decision: Unanimity May Break, Swaps Price September Discount

US Federal Reserve (Fed)While it is expected to leave interest rates steady at the July 2025 meeting, this time the decision seems unlikely to be received unanimously. Economic data, the impact of trade wars and political pressures, the Fed's a historical stress test in monetary policy It causes him to live.

🔹 The Fed's Test of Independence: The Trump Effect

President of the United States Donald Trump's, the Fed's president Jerome PowellThe call to “resign immediately” has raised concerns about the Fed's independence. Trump advocates a quick cut in interest rates and wants to keep the economy strong ahead of the election year. Although Powell continued in office, Increased political pressure and we are going through a period in which every decision of the Fed finds double resonance in the markets.

As highlighted in the IMF's latest statement, the Fed's both macroeconomic data and political pressure He needs to decide by balancing. This has been the case since the Volcker era in the 1980s. The highest political risk It is seen as.

🔹 Macroeconomic Outlook and Market Data

The US economy is sending mixed signals:

• Non-Agricultural Employment: 150 thousand (expectation 175 thousand)
• Unemployment Rate: 3-year peak with 4.1%
• Inflation: Cuff CPI 3.3%, core CPI 3.1%
• PCE: Above the Fed target with 2.9%
• Consumer Confidence: 2-year low with 104.6

This table, The wait-see strategy Supports: The fall in inflation is slow, growth is weak and new tariffs create uncertainty.

🔹 Swap and Futures Pricing

• July 2025:97% fixed interest, 3% discount probability
• September 2025:25 bp discount 65%, 50 bp discount 18%
• December 2025: At least 50bp total rebate priced
• OIS curve: Expectation of first net discount September

Technical Indicators:

• 2Y-10Y bond spread: -48bps (recession signal)
• US 10Y bond interest rate: 4.35%
• DXY index: 100.6
• Gold Price: 3,388 $/ounce
• THE S&P 500: 6,350, an increase of 3.2% in the last month

🔹 Possible Effects on Markets — 3 Scenarios

ScenarioDXY10Y BondsS&P 500GoldCryptocurrency, Rust Pass StrengthStrengthHorizonlySlight DecretractedHorizonalUnion BreakdownWeaksYields Falling RisesRisesRallyEarly Discount SignalQuick FallSharp DeclinesTriple RallyTriple Rally

🔹 Historical Perspective

Recent periods in which the Fed's unanimity has broken down, generally increased market volatility:

• S&P 500 falls 4% after unanimous breakdown during 2013 Tapering
• Gold rises 5% in 2 weeks after decision taken by 2 to 8 votes during 2019 trade wars
• 1 dissenting vote at inflation peak in 2022 pushes bond rates up 0.25%

🔹 Strategic Recommendations for Investors

Current table, both defensive as well as opportunity-oriented It requires an approach:

• Gold and Silver: Demand for safe harbor increases if unanimity breaks down
• US Technology Stocks: Short-term rally potential in anticipation of interest rate cut
• DXY and Bonds: Dollar strengthens if unanimity does not break, short-term bonds become attractive
• Crypto Assets: Upward momentum in scenario pigeonholed by Fed

Powell's press conference and forward guidance, The course of monetary policy 2026 will determine.