September Employment Data Will Determine Key Levels For Bitcoin

Crypto markets remained stable at the beginning of this week, but investors are acting cautiously ahead of important US economic data. Bitcoin stood firm above the $110,000 level, while Ethereum managed to recover from its sharp drop. Upcoming unemployment data and Federal Reserve statements are expected to influence market direction and interest rate expectations.

Crypto markets showed no change on Monday and Tuesday. Investors are exercising caution after last week's $1.5 billion liquidation. Bitcoin bulls repeatedly defended the $110,000 support level over the past week. Ethereum, on the other hand, recovered from a sharp drop to $4,075, making gains amidst market fluctuations. The total market capitalization currently stands at approximately $3.85 trillion; this represents a 1.3% decrease compared to last week. Despite a 3.5% recovery over the weekend, market volatility continues.

Investors, noting that the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut provided limited support to Bitcoin, emphasize that the future course depends on Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday and the unemployment data to be released on Friday, October 13. Nick Ruck from LVRG Research stated in a message sent to CoinDesk, “The crypto market is at a macroeconomic crossroads between a slowing labor market and resilient economic growth.” He added, “This week's data set – Consumer Confidence, Initial Jobless Claims, and the critical September Employment Report – will be crucial for assessing the Federal Reserve's next move. Further signs of a slowdown in the labor market could provide an advantage, creating new momentum for major assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP.”

September's jobs data shows how many people found jobs or lost jobs in the US economy. If fewer people are working and unemployment is rising, this indicates a slowing economy. This generally increases the Federal Reserve's likelihood of cutting interest rates, which positively impacts risky assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. However, if job numbers come in strong and unemployment remains low, this means the economy is still robust. This keeps inflation high and makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. Ruck stated, “This macro uncertainty could preserve Bitcoin's dominance. This could have a limiting effect despite the superior return opportunities offered by Ethereum and the broader DeFi sector.”

The market structure also reflects this indecision. On Friday, the sentiment index retreated to 28, entering the “extreme fear” zone, then rebounded to a neutral 50 on Monday. Bitcoin consolidated in a narrow band between $108,000 and $118,000, with open positions trapped. Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, stated, “The resurgence came from early September levels. Once again, altcoins are showing a stronger recovery than Bitcoin. Such outperformance often signals future winners early in the recovery process.” Kuptsikevich also emphasized Bitcoin's critical technical levels: “At the end of last week, Bitcoin found support at $109,000. Re-accumulation at these levels is a positive sign for bulls.”

“On the other hand, September's local peak remains at a lower level than the previous one. This situation could generally signal a decrease in volatility and a stronger move to break out of the $108,000 to $118,000 range. Movements within this band can give many misleading signals in the short term,” he added. Ethereum could experience its own breakout point. Analysts highlighted technical exhaustion after last week's selling wave, signaling a potential bottom. Additionally, Ethereum garnered attention with the launch of the first US ETF featuring staking capabilities, created by REX Shares and Osprey Funds. Applications from BlackRock and Fidelity are currently under SEC review.

News concerning Solana bolstered the altcoin narrative. Its total network value reached $12.2 billion, representing a 57% increase since June. This situation sparked discussions about new $300 price targets for Solana. Furthermore, meme coins are becoming increasingly prominent; the market capitalization of this sector has grown by 70% in the last three months. However, regulatory headlines have caused investors to act cautiously. The Wall Street Journal reported that US regulators have launched an investigation into potential insider trading linked to companies accumulating crypto reserves. Meanwhile, ratings giant Moody's warned that the rapid expansion of stablecoin usage in emerging countries poses risks to monetary sovereignty and financial stability.