October Economic Data at Risk: Growth Expectations

Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, stated that some parts of the economic data for October in the U.S. may not be collected due to the government shutdown. In an interview with CNBC, he explained that some agencies not only paused their operations but also missed the necessary full survey periods. This situation means that economists may see gaps in the charts for that month.

The White House had indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October would not be released, and Hassett suggested that other reports were facing similar issues. He mentioned that the job report for September could be published once the Bureau of Labor Statistics reopens, but it appears that October's data may be lost. Hassett estimates that the shutdown has led to a loss of about 1% to 1.5% in growth; this loss has affected the economy's Q2 and Q3 growth momentum of 4%.

Nonetheless, Hassett carries a positive outlook for the future. He expects growth to resurge in early 2026 and for GDP to return to levels of 3% to 4%. He hopes that this improvement will occur with an increase in employment, more investment from businesses, and the productivity boost from artificial intelligence. He also emphasized that the effects of this increase have already been seen in companies' Q3 earnings. The U.S. Dollar Index also registered a decline of 0.2% in the afternoon; meanwhile, U.S. stocks are exhibiting a mixed trend.