October Economic Data at Risk: Growth Expectations

Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, stated that some parts of the U.S. economic data for October might not be collected due to the government shutdown. In an interview on CNBC, he explained that some agencies have not only paused operations but have also missed the necessary full survey periods. This situation means that economists might see gaps in graphs for that month.

The White House had indicated that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October would not be released, and Hassett suggested that other reports would also face similar issues. He mentioned that the job report for September could be published once the Bureau of Labor Statistics reopens, but it appears that October will likely be lost. Hassett estimates that the shutdown has led to a growth loss of about 1% to 1.5%; this loss has affected the economy's Q2 and Q3 growth momentum of 4%.

Despite this, Hassett carries an optimistic outlook for the future. He expects growth to regain prominence in early 2026, with GDP returning to levels of 3% to 4%. He hopes this improvement will occur as employment rises, businesses invest more, and artificial intelligence boosts productivity. He also emphasized that this increase is already reflected in Q3 corporate earnings. The U.S. Dollar Index recorded a decline of 0.2% by midday; U.S. stock markets are also showing a mixed trend.