EIA, U.S. Oil Price Forecast Increased: What is Expected in 2025?

EIA Updates Price Forecasts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its average oil price forecast upward for 2023 and 2024, evaluating developments in global oil markets.

Possible Price Trends and Forecasts

The EIA's published "October 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook Report" indicates that oil prices are following a stable course, influenced by various factors that balance the pressures created by increased supply. In particular, the increase in China's strategic oil reserves may have limited the downward pressure on prices. Although China does not officially disclose stock data, it is anticipated that they have accumulated a significant amount of oil this year based on import, export, and refining information.

The average price of Brent crude oil is forecasted to be $68.64 per barrel in 2023, an increase from the previously reported $67.80. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is projected to be $65, also exceeding last month's $64.16 forecast.

Expectations for Price Decline by Year-End

The report anticipates that with increased supply and the end of the demand period, global oil inventories will increase by an average of 2.6 million barrels per day in the last quarter of 2023. This situation could lead to a decline in crude oil prices. In the first quarter of 2024, stock increases are expected to exceed 2.7 million barrels.

For 2026, the average forecasted price for Brent crude oil is $52.16 per barrel, and for WTI, it is $48.50. The previous forecasts indicated $51.43 for Brent and $47.77 for WTI.

Expectations for Increased U.S. Crude Oil Production

The daily average U.S. crude oil production is expected to be 13 million 530 thousand barrels this year. This forecast has been adjusted from the previous estimate of 13 million 440 thousand barrels. For next year, production is projected to be 13 million 510 thousand barrels.

Global oil supply is expected to be 105 million 870 thousand barrels per day, while consumption is estimated at 103 million 990 thousand barrels this year. For 2026, global supply is expected to reach 107 million 170 thousand barrels, while consumption is anticipated to be 105 million 110 thousand barrels.