"Positive Growth Forecast for Global Trade from WTO"

Positive Developments in Global Trade Outlook

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has published updates on the Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Report. The report indicates that global merchandise trade grew by 4.9 percent year-on-year in the first half of this year. This increase was influenced by the rising demand for artificial intelligence products and a surge in imports in North America before the increase in customs tariffs.

Artificial Intelligence Products as the Backbone of Trade

Products related to artificial intelligence, such as semiconductors and telecommunications equipment, accounted for nearly half of the total trade volume in the first six months of the year. WTO economists, influenced by this positive growth, raised their growth forecasts for 2023 from 0.9 percent to 2.4 percent. However, this rate remains below the expected 2.8 percent increase for 2024.

More Cautious Expectations for the Second Half

Economists foresee a less optimistic outlook for the second half of the year and for 2026. Growth expectations for 2026 have been revised down from 1.8 percent to 0.5 percent. This downward revision is said to be related to the impact of customs tariffs set by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Emphasis from the WTO Director-General

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that the measured response of countries to tariff changes has alleviated current trade disruptions while enhancing the growth potential of artificial intelligence and the increase in trade among developing countries. Okonjo-Iweala stated, "The current disruptions in the global trade system present an opportunity for countries to rethink trade."