The Dow Jones Industrial Index once again failed to break through the critical resistance at 45,000 points in the summer of 2025, which is considered by technical analysts as an important warning signal that fragility is increasing in the markets. Formed in the last weeks “double peak formation”is often considered the leading indicator of trend reversal and signals that buyers are losing strength. This picture reinforces expectations that volatility may increase in the US stock market in the summer.

The index's failure to break 45,000 points reveals market fatigue and loss of momentum. Technical analysts at Bank of America Securities said in a report released Sunday that this failure highlights the downside risk for the Dow Jones. The double peak pattern indicates that short-term selling pressure may increase, especially with buyers straining in resistance zones.

Technical Outlook and Support Levels

The first critical support level for the Dow Jones is around 42,500 points. This zone falls just below the 200-day simple moving average and is technically seen as the main line of defense. Further down, the points of 41.800 and 40,800 points stand out relative to the Fibonacci correction levels. These levels point to a potential pullback of between 2% and 4% relative to Friday's close.

Bank of America Technical Strategist Paul Ciana used the following statements in his latest report: “The Dow failed to break above the 45,073 level, and there was no broad-based rotation in the market. In the short term, our target is around 42,500, and this will be the critical test for buyers. If this support is broken, a more drastic correction could be in the market.”

Remarkable Comments from Analysts

Roth Markets Chief Technical Analyst J.C. O'Hara noted that many stock indexes are stuck on chart resistance and average stocks are unable to produce new highs. O'Hara, “The bears began to wake up from their summer slumber. Markets have priced in the perfect scenario, which leaves them vulnerable to declines in the short term.” he said.

Jonathan Krinsky of BTIG also pointed out that the S&P 500's closing streak above its 20-day moving average has come to an end. Krinsky pointed to 6,100 points for the index as short-term support, stressing that selling pressure could increase if this level is breached. On the Nasdaq side, a slowdown in the rally led by tech stocks also suggests that investors may be shifting their attention back to defensive sectors.

Macroeconomic Risks and Market Dynamics

In addition to the technical pressure, the macroeconomic outlook also increases risks. Recent employment data pointed to a marked weakening in the US labour market. Rising unemployment and slowing wage growth have deepened investors' concerns about the possibility of the United States entering a recession. This reduces the risk appetite of market participants and strengthens the possibility of a short-term decline.

Experts also note that short-term selling pressures may be felt more harshly during the summer, as liquidity generally falls and volatility increases. If the Dow Jones fails to maintain its 42,500 point support, the levels of 41,800 and then 40,800 points could be tested. This suggests that the market could enter a correction phase over the summer.

Summary and Investor Perspective

The failure of the Dow Jones to break the 45,000 point resistance points to a technically fragile structure. Analysts emphasize that the 42,500 point support is critical, a deeper correction may be on the agenda in the event of a downward break. The start of a loss of momentum in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also reinforces signs that bears may be more active in the summer period. This technical outlook, combined with weakening macroeconomic data, calls for a more cautious strategy for investors.