Dollar, Did It See Dibi? Upward Signals Begin to Emerge

Current Status of the Dollar and Future Expectations

In 2025, the US Dollar has been going through a challenging period, drawing attention with recent developments. The Dollar has depreciated by approximately 9% since the beginning of 2025, particularly showing weak performance against rivals like the Euro. However, technical signals have begun to emerge suggesting a potential recovery for the Dollar at the start of 2026.

Technical Indicators: Golden Cross Signal

Bank of America's technical strategist Paul Ciana stated that an important development occurred in the ICE US Dollar Index last week. The crossing of the 50-day simple moving average above the 200-day moving average indicates the formation of a technical signal known as a "golden cross." This situation is an encouraging sign for Dollar investors.

Market Reactions and Future Predictions

The US Dollar Index fell by 0.3% on Monday, trading at 98.30, just above the year's lowest levels. However, Ciana expresses that "a golden cross signal is generally bullish for the Dollar." Such signals have historically shown that the Dollar enters a recovery process. Recorded as the 39th golden cross signal in the past 53 years, this situation may provide investors with a renewed opportunity to lean towards the Dollar.

Monetary Policies and Global Economic Effects

The weak performance of the Dollar this year is influenced by President Donald Trump's trade policies and the interest rates of other major economies. In the global market, central banks' monetary policies play a decisive role for investors. Particularly, as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has signaled a reduction in policy rates, investors have been negatively affected during this challenging period for the Dollar.

Conclusion and Expectations

In the coming months, whether the Dollar can recover will depend on the steps taken by the Fed and global risk appetite. It is critically important to be cautious in trading and to monitor developments in international markets.