BlackRock IBIT Decline Expectations Continue for Two Months

BlackRock's IBIT Options Show Signs of Decline

BlackRock's Nasdaq-traded Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund IBIT has been in a bearish put bias for the past two months. Since July, investors have been favoring protective put options over bullish call options. This suggests a sense of risk aversion in the markets.

The one-year put-call curve of the IBIT, which measures market sentiment or pessimism, turned positive on July 25 and has remained above zero since then. This means that investors have consistently gravitated towards put options that provide bearish protection over the past two months. Moreover, a similar trend of put options was seen between March 8 and April 21 this year, with sharp price declines due to trade war weakness on Wall Street.

IBIT's Historical Price Movements

IBIT's price trend has entered a pause phase since July. It has failed to break above the $70 level several times in a row. It last formed a "lower peak" at $66, which means that the last peak price was lower than the previous peak around $70. This signals that buying pressure is weakening and sellers are gaining strength. The formation of lower highs usually indicates a potential bearish trend or bearish momentum.