Bitcoin is Stuck: Experts Are Pushing Investors to a Test of Patience

In recent weeks, Bitcoin's (Bitcoin) price movements have created significant uncertainty for investors, while analysts indicate that the market is facing a patience test as it remains trapped below the short-term cost band. The current state of Bitcoin, coupled with rising options interest, is increasing price volatility.

As of October 23, 2023, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $109,000, with an intraday price range fluctuating between $109,500 and $107,200. BRN Research President Timothy Misir noted that Bitcoin's failure to remain above the short-term cost band indicates that rallies have become fragile. According to analysts, rising open positions and increasing put (sell) demand are causing the market to be susceptible to sudden squeezes and sharp corrections due to short gamma positions.

Experts highlight that Bitcoin's price has repeatedly struggled to break above $113,000. If Bitcoin drops below $108,000, the risk of a pullback to lower levels such as $104,500 and even $97,000 increases. Additionally, weakening institutional demand is also noteworthy; losses of $101 million from Bitcoin spot ETFs and $19 million from Ethereum ETFs indicate an increase in liquidity tightness.

Macro risks and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data are also crucial focal points for investors. QCP Capital draws attention to the interruption in data flow due to the potential U.S. government shutdown, suggesting that this will impact the CPI data set to be released on Friday. A favorable outcome could provide support for Bitcoin, while high figures might accelerate risk aversion.

On the other hand, some analysts take a more cautious approach. Standard Chartered forecasts that it might be 'inevitable' for Bitcoin's price to fall below the $100,000 level by the weekend, although it emphasizes that this situation will not be permanent. As a result, Bitcoin is still in a 'proof of process,' and while short-term investors take profits, purchases on the ETF and treasury side are attempting to stabilize the price. However, for now, this balance continues to remain below the $110,000 level.